economic short forecast

Assessment Instructions

 

Don't use plagiarized sources. Get Your Custom Essay on
economic short forecast
Get an essay WRITTEN FOR YOU, Plagiarism free, and by an EXPERT!
Order Essay

MODELLING AND FORECASTING CONSUMERS’ EXPENDITURE

 

This assignment gives you a chance to apply the econometric theory you have Econometrics to the challenging task of modelling and forecasting consumers’ expenditure.

 

Section 1

Using Stata and the data file Cons 1976-2019.xlsx, estimate the following initial model for the subperiod 1976–2016:

Ct = α + β1Yt + β2Ht + β3Ct-1 + εt (1)

 

where Ct is households’ real final consumption expenditure (£ million) in year t

Yt is households’ real disposable income (£ million) in year t

Ht is the Nationwide real house price index in quarter 2 of year t (£ per house, 2019Q2 prices)

εt is a random error term with an expected value of zero in year t

Using your log, paste in your initial results from Stata, along with a correlation matrix and summary table with means, standard deviations.

 

Section 2

Offer a brief rationale for the inclusion of the explanatory variables in model (1). Comment on your findings, referring particularly to the signs, values and statistical significance of the estimated coefficients. Be sure to explain how to interpret the values of the regression coefficients. How satisfactory is your initial model? You should play close attention to any problems of serial correlation, multicollinearity and heteroscedasticity, as well as to possible specification errors. Illustrate your answer with appropriate graphic output from Stata.

 

Section 3

Now consider how you might refine your initial model. You should present the results for four models in a summary table (including your initial one in the first column) and explain how and why you refined your initial model. You should follow the ‘general-to-specific’ (g-to-s) modelling methodology. You can use the Cons 1976-2019.xlsx data file as a source of data on additional variables. For consistency, all models must be fitted to data for 1976–2016. In your summary table, show standard errors in brackets beneath the regression coefficients, followed by t ratios in bold type and then p values. For each model, report R2,

, D.W. and χ2 test statistics for serial correlation and heteroscedasticity (along with p values).

Section 4

Using your preferred model, forecast consumers’ expenditure from 2017 to 2019. How accurate are the forecasts? Provide a plot of actual and fitted values of Ct. Try to account for any discrepancies between observed and forecasted expenditure.

Section 5

Outline what improvements you think could be made to your preferred model if you had more time to devote to the modelling of consumers’ expenditure in the UK.

Homework Market
Order a unique copy of this paper
(550 words)

Approximate price: $22

Basic features
  • Free title page and bibliography
  • Unlimited revisions
  • Plagiarism-free guarantee
  • Money-back guarantee
  • 24/7 support
On-demand options
  • Writer’s samples
  • Part-by-part delivery
  • Overnight delivery
  • Copies of used sources
  • Expert Proofreading
Paper format
  • 275 words per page
  • 12 pt Arial/Times New Roman
  • Double line spacing
  • Any citation style (APA, MLA, Chicago/Turabian, Harvard)

Our guarantees

Since all our papers are written from scratch, the papers we submit are plagiarism free and we strictly adhere to lecturer’s instructions. Our writers are highly qualified from all over the world and include graduates and professors from most of the largest and known universities in the world. Once you have assigned us your assignment, we select the most qualified and reliable writer to handle your assignment.

Money-back guarantee

Unlike other writing companies, we encourage clients to draw back their money at any stage of the writing process if they experience any uncertainties with the quality of generated content. However, you will hardly have to make this decision because of our business approach that suits your needs.

Zero-plagiarism guarantee

We have an advanced plagiarism-detection system that flags any work that fails to meet the required academic expectations. Our company thrives in honesty, and as such, you will be guaranteed to achieve a paper that meets your expectations.

Timely delivery of urgent papers

At homeworkpaper.org we have online agents that you can chat with to have your assignment taken care of with the little remaining time. Also, we have professional academic writers who will work on your assignment providing you with a high-quality paper at the same time. We can take care of your urgent assignments in less than 5 hours.

Privacy policy

We uphold confidentiality and privacy through our interactions with clients, an aspect that has enhanced our relationship with prospective customers seeking for assignment help. We do not disclose your information with third-parties; neither do we share your work with any other person apart from you.

We do not offer pre-written essays

We do not resell previously-done tasks delivered to other clients. When we deliver orders to our clients, we safeguard their privacy and confidentiality by ensuring the third party does not access the work. By writing the papers from scratch, we have managed to maintain a certain level of originality, which defines our business model. Our qualified editors proofread all submitted work to eliminate mistakes that can interfere with the credibility of the assignment.

Calculate the price of your order

550 words
We'll send you the first draft for approval by September 11, 2018 at 10:52 AM
Total price:
$26
The price is based on these factors:
Academic level
Number of pages
Urgency