Use of moving average, exponential smoothing and trend forecasting for currencies in project management finance

Topic: Use of moving average, exponential smoothing and trend forecasting for currencies in project management finance

 

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Word count 1000- 1100

 

Spelling: UK English

 

Ref style: Harvard

 

Currency focus GBP/EUR (time scale 2004-2020)

 

 

Key Points

 

1) Introduction to the report/essay

 

Provide a short introduction about the paper

Aim is to showcase how moving average, exponential smoothing and trend forecasting can be used for forecasting currencies, particular focus GBP/EUR relationship, when used in project management financing with multiple currencies (currency hedging requirement, currency risk reduction)

Touch up quickly on triggering events like financial market crashes 2008/2009 and Brexit, as they drive economic uncertainty and therefore currency volatility.

Point out that currency hedging is used here to minimize risk and not for speculation.

 

 

2) Overview of the numerical methods used: moving average/ exponential smoothing / trend forecasting.

 

In this section make sure to provide an overview of the numerical methods used to develop the analysis. Please focus on “moving average” and “trend forecasting” as main relevant methods for this paper.

 

 

3) Provide an example of the data that might be utilised and illustrate an understanding of SPSS analysis

 

not expecting pages of SPSS analysis here, this section needs to provide an illustration of the data that is used and a demonstration the understanding of it.

 

Be selective in what is include here and explain fully how the data might be used in a project management environment that deals with multiple currencies ( here GBP/EUR), being exposed to volatile exchange rates and risk.

In terms of SPSS, demonstrate an understanding of this type of analysis and interpret outcomes

Time scale for forecasting data 2004-2020, method used: moving average

 

4) Discuss strengths and limitations of “moving average” and “trend forecasting”

 

What are the strength and limitations of “moving average” and “trend forecasting”? All models will have some limitations i.e. they may not be suitable for large volumes of information. There will also be benefits and discuss what the positive aspects of the model are and the negative.

 

 

5) Apply findings in a project management finance context

 

Elaborate in this section how the model(s) can be applied in a project management finance context. Explain how to utilise basic forecasting methods to help to inform the development of a project.

 

6) Prediction of future trends for GBP/EUR (trend forecasting)

 

Predict the outcome of the currency movements until 2023 (trend forecasting). This might difficult due to economic uncertainty of Brexit etc but should have an idea of trajectory based on the evidence and what it is showing.

Outline also the limitations of this model due to immanent economic impacting factors.

Is there a need for aggressive currency hedging to minimise risk.

Point out that currency hedging is used here to minimize risk and not used for speculation.

Aim is to deliver a project within cost

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