drafting China’s 14th 5 Year Plan

The plan should identify 5 key variables/objectives that you wish to achieve subdivided into two groups:
1) Primary goal, the 2/3 most important ones and 2) secondary objectives (the remaining ones).

The plan will include 3 parts:
1) why you chose those objectives
2) how do you plan to achieve those objectives, thus you need to identify additional, lower lever input variables that are the drivers of such objectives
3) Provide 1 or 2 numerical example of your objectives and the value of the input needed to achieve those goals.

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The report will have three sections:
1) A Bubble-Arrows graph that illustrate the relationship between the five main goals and all other second-order input that you have selected. You will highlight in Red the five main goals so that they are quite visible. This graphs represent the model/method that you, as policy maker, will wish to adopt to achieve your goals and the arrow should have + or – indicating the direction of the relationship of any two pairs of variables. Be careful on how you define the name of the variables that should be “neutral”
2) A description of the method in 1), explaining why you chose those five main goals and why you selected the remaining n-second order variables. You can write a short pararapth for each of the variables. At the end, you will describe the “direction” in which you wish the variables would have to go in order to achieve your goals. For example: if the variables are interest rates and investment you will say: In our model the variables are linked with a – sign, therefore since I wish to increase investment, I will want interest rates to go down”, of course not exactly like this.
3) Select 2 main goal, redraw the model graph only for the part relevant to those 2 variables and select a subset of the second-order variables that you deem most important. For this 2 new mini-model, you will write on each arrow the “value” than links the two variable; in other words, the sensitivity of output with respect to the input variable
The better the graph, the less description will be needed.
LESS THAN 3,000 words

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